Patrick Clawson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, writes in a recent analysis for the pro-Israel American think tank that US officials have been wrong believing that they could extract concessions from Iran through economic sanctions.
Instead, he argues, Iran’s economy is doing well enough to leave the Islamic Republic “feeling quite secure on that front.”
“According to IMF projections, 2024 will be the third year in a row where Iran’s GDP grows faster than that of the United States, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025,” Clawson writes.
One factor driving this growth has been a rise in Iran’s oil income.
Citing data from the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) Research Center, the analysis points out that Iran’s export revenues for the Iranian year 2024/25 will grow between $28 billion and $40 billion depending on price and volume.
This comes as the Iranian economy has become less dependent on oil, it adds.
On the national security front, Clawson says Iran has made substantial progress on keynote programs such as missile and drone development as well as nuclear enrichment, all despite Western efforts to restrain the programs.
The analysis also says that the Islamic Republic has managed to upset US-led attempts to isolate the country, and has successfully spread its influence across the West Asia region.
“The Gaza war has likewise gained more adherents for Iran’s view that the United States and Israel are the real culprits behind the region’s problems,” Clawson writes.
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